MGTutoring.com. A Rational Perspective on Education.

January 4, 2010

Violating the Laws of Statistics is Bad For Health

Filed under: Exercise, Health & Nutrition,Science,Statistics — Administrator @ 11:19 am

Many in education offer advice on diet and nutrition to help students in school and on tests. But most of their advice (eat candy or a grain-based breakfast before a test, etc.) is rubbish based on pseudo-science (e.g., the ungrounded, unproven (and false) cholesterol-heart health hypothesis of Ancel Keys — who violated the laws of statistics in doing his ‘research’ and reporting his results — and which hypothesis has led to the recommendations that we eat more grains and sugars), hasty generalization (e.g., drawing conclusions about proper human diet without considering the American Indians’ (and other peoples’!) decay in health when put on a high-sugar, high-grain diet instead of a hunter-gatherer-type diet), and failure to integrate (e.g., failing to understand and assess results of a ‘scientific experiment’ in terms of our evolutionary history).

Statistics is the science that studies the quantitative, numerical attributes of groups. It is by nature grounded in induction and classification. Hence, when doing statistics, to fail to generalize properly, to fail to classify properly, and to fail to integrate a conclusion with the rest of human knowledge — i.e., to fail to induce properly — is to fail to follow the laws and presuppositions of statistics. Statistics do not lie and cannot be made to say anything whatsoever; people lie. In such cases, statistics is being abused, not used.

Violating the laws of statistics (and, more generally, the laws of logic) has led to more obesity in America, more diabetes, more heart disease. And to American students eating a diet that adversely affects their memories, ability to learn, brain function, nervous system function, synapse growth and repair, etc.

In Scott Smith’s interview with Gary Taubes (“Gary Taubes on Cold Fusion, Good Nutrition and What Makes Bad (and Good) Science,” posted on 11-22-09), Mr. Taubes identifies some objective, scientific, integrated principles of a healthy diet:

1. Dietary fat, whether saturated or not, is not a cause of obesity, heart disease or any other chronic disease of civilization.

2. The problem is the carbohydrates in the diet, their effect on insulin secretion and so the hormonal regulation of homeostasis — the entire harmonic ensemble of the human body. The more easily-digestible and refined the carbohydrates, the greater the effect on our health, weight and well-being.

3. Sugars – sucrose and high fructose corn syrup specifically – are particularly harmful, probably because the combination of fructose and glucose simultaneously elevate insulin levels while overloading the liver with carbohydrates.

4. Through their direct effect on insulin and blood sugar, refined carbohydrates, starches and sugars are the dietary cause of coronary heart disease and diabetes. They are the most likely dietary causes of cancer, Alzheimer’s Disease and the other chronic diseases of civilization.

5. Obesity is a disorder of excess fat accumulation not overeating and not sedentary behavior.

6. Consuming excess calories does not cause us to grow fatter any more than it causes a child to grow taller. Expending more energy than we consume does not lead to long-term weight loss; it leads to hunger.

7. Fattening and obesity are caused by an imbalance – a disequilibrium — in the hormonal regulation of adipose tissue and fat metabolism: Fat synthesis and storage exceeds the mobilization of fat from the adipose tissue and its subsequent oxidation. We become leaner when the hormonal regulation of the fat tissue reverses this balance.

8. Insulin is the primary regulator of fat storage. When insulin levels are elevated – either chronically or after a meal – we accumulate fat in our fat tissue. When insulin levels fall, we release fat from our fat tissue and use it for fuel.

9. By stimulating insulin secretion, carbohydrates make us fat and ultimately cause obesity. The less carbohydrates we consume, the leaner we will be.

10. By driving fat accumulation, carbohydrates also increase hunger and decrease the amount of energy we expend in metabolism and physical activity.

To do well in school and on tests, we should put fat in our diet, and we should remove sugars and grains, which injure and wreck havoc upon our bodies, nervous systems, and brains. Our brains and our nervous system needs fats, omega-3s, and cholesterol to function properly. See, for example, my posts “Real Brain Food” and “Insulin, Obesity, and Exercise.”

The comment after the interview I must disagree with vehemently. In saying:

We tend to believe – and this is NOT an opinion we have arrived at through any kind of numerical or scientific analysis – that the entire Western scientific culture has been perverted by the endless amounts of money cast at it by governmental entities at the behest of a small coterie of individuals with great wealth and a generational agenda. This goes to the heart of the Daily Bell’s ongoing analysis, which is all about the growing efforts by the monetary elite to impose dominant social themes on the West’s increasingly harried masses.

Money is the motivating factor in all this. The amount of public money thrown at science today is infinitely corrupting. If you are a researcher, where are you going to go? Universities in the West are on the public dole and private institutions for the most part are linked in some form or other to governmental entities as well – or at least share stated agendas.

the author is driven, implicitly or explicitly, by Marxism. (Or, possibly, some related false theory of man and money.)

It is not money as such that is the problem; nor is the problem some “elite” “oppressing” the “masses.”

The problem is bad ideas and bad philosophy governing the use of some money — as well as of some people’s time, effort, and cognition. We can see this by encompassing the whole of history and the whole of human experience. The kings of old were not held in power by money possessing some magic power breathed into it by Marx; they were held in power by wrong ideas about morality and the metaphysics of man, ideas held volitionally, not deterministically, by each individual man and by the driving minds of the era. Ancient Athens was neither raised up nor thrown into decay by magic Marxist money; it was affected by the fundamental ideas governing people’s thinking: the idea of man as a self-sovereign rational animal making Athens great; the idea of man as a helpless, irrational pawn of unknowable forces bringing its decline. America did not go from the Founders’ Republic to the Federal Reserve because of magic money imposing Marxism on the structure of the universe and on human nature; it decayed because the dominant ideas influencing people’s thought and action went from the ideas of man as self-sovereign, individual, independent and rational to the ideas of man as dependent on the state, servant to the state, and irrational/arational.

December 21, 2009

Statistics and Current Events

Filed under: Mathematics,Science,Statistics — Administrator @ 8:48 am

In “Fables of the Reconstruction (Or, How to Make Your Own Hockey Stick),” the blogger Iowahawk says:

What follows started as a comment I made over at Ace’s last week which he graciously decided to feature on a separate post (thanks Ace). In short, it’s a detailed how-to-guide for replicating the climate reconstruction method used by the so-called “Climategate” scientists. Not a perfect replication, but a pretty faithful facsimile that you can do on your own computer, with some of the same data they used.

A good read. And fun with stats. Check it out.  (HT: Geoffrey K.)

On a related note, read “The ‘Science’ of Global Warming” (Macleans.ca, Thursday, December 3, 2009 10:00am) by Mark Steyn. He writes:

Yet perhaps the most important revelation is not the collusion, the bullying, the politicization and the evidence-planting, but the fact that, even if you wanted to do honest “climate research” at the Climatic Research Unit, the data and the models are now so diseased by the above that they’re all but useless. Let Ian “Harry” Harris, who works in “climate scenario development and data manipulation” at the CRU, sum it up. Mr. Harris was attempting to duplicate previous results—i.e., to duplicate all that science that’s supposedly settled, and the questioning of which consigns you to the Climate Branch of the Flat Earth Society. How hard should it be to confirm settled science? After much cyber-gnashing of teeth, Harry throws in the towel:

“ARGH. Just went back to check on synthetic production. Apparently—I have no memory of this at all—we’re not doing observed rain days! It’s all synthetic from 1990 onwards. So I’m going to need conditionals in the update program to handle that. And separate gridding before 1989. And what [#%] happens to station counts?

“OH [#&] THIS. It’s Sunday evening, I’ve worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I’m hitting yet another problem that’s based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform data integrity, it’s just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they’re found.”

You cannot do good statistics with bad data. Nor can you do science.   (HT: Harry B.)

In stats and science, reality must come first.

November 6, 2009

Sprints and Statistics

Filed under: Exercise, Health & Nutrition,Statistics — Administrator @ 12:44 pm

Two things, that is, that I love.

The abstract of “Reduced volume and increased training intensity elevate muscle Na+/K+ pump {alpha}2-subunit expression as well as short- and long-term work capacity in humans” (J Appl Physiol. 2009 Oct 1. [Epub ahead of print]) by Bangsbo J, Gunnarsson TP, Wendell J, Nybo L, Thomassen M. (University of Copenhagen) says:

The present study examined muscle adaptations and alterations in work capacity in endurance-trained runners as a result of a reduced amount of training combined with speed endurance training. Seventeen runners were for a 6- to 9-wk period assigned to either a speed endurance group with a 25% reduction in the amount of training but including speed endurance training consisting of 6-12 30-s sprint runs 3-4 times a week (SET, n=12) or a control group (CON, n=5), which continued the endurance training (about 55 km(.)wk(-1)). For SET the expression of the muscle Na(+)/K(+) pump alpha2-subunit was 68% higher (P<0.05) and plasma K(+) was reduced (P<0.05) during repeated intense running after 9 weeks. Performance in a 30-s sprint test and the first of the supra-maximal exhaustive runs was improved (P<0.05) by 7% and 36%, respectively, after the speed endurance training period. In SET, VO2-max was unaltered, but the 3-K (3,000 m) time was reduced (P<0.05) from 10.4+/-0.1 (mean+/-SEM) to 10.1+/-0.1 min and 10-K (10,000 m) time was improved from 37.3+/-0.4 to 36.3+/-0.4 min. Muscle protein expression and performance remained unaltered in CON. The present data suggest that both short- and long-term exercise performance can be improved with a reduction in training volume if speed endurance training is performed, and a role of the Na(+)/K(+) pump in the control of K(+) homeostasis and in the development of fatigue during repeated high-intensity exercise.

Key words: Fatigue, Running economy, Performance, Potassium.
PMID: 19797693 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

October 28, 2009

Theoretical Statistics Is Practical and Life-Giving

Filed under: Mathematics,Philosophy,Quotes,Science,Statistics — Administrator @ 10:55 am

In “The Median Isn’t the Message,” Stephen Jay Gould (evolutionary biologist who taught at Harvard University) wrote:

My life has recently intersected, in a most personal way, two of Mark Twain’s famous quips. One I shall defer to the end of this essay. The other (sometimes attributed to Disraeli), identifies three species of mendacity, each worse than the one before – lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Many people make an unfortunate and invalid separation between heart and mind, or feeling and intellect. In some contemporary traditions, abetted by attitudes stereotypically centered on Southern California, feelings are exalted as more “real” and the only proper basis for action – if it feels good, do it – while intellect gets short shrift as a hang-up of outmoded elitism. Statistics, in this absurd dichotomy, often become the symbol of the enemy. As Hilaire Belloc wrote, “Statistics are the triumph of the quantitative method, and the quantitative method is the victory of sterility and death.”

This is a personal story of statistics, properly interpreted, as profoundly nurturant and life-giving. It declares holy war on the downgrading of intellect by telling a small story about the utility of dry, academic knowledge about science. Heart and head are focal points of one body, one personality.

Mr. Gould also goes on to discuss how the Platonic view that the type or kind is (most) real is false; what is true is the Aristotelian view that the individual (“variation”) is real. He says:

We still carry the historical baggage of a Platonic heritage that seeks sharp essences and definite boundaries. (Thus we hope to find an unambiguous “beginning of life” or “definition of death,” although nature often comes to us as irreducible continua.) This Platonic heritage, with its emphasis in clear distinctions and separated immutable entities, leads us to view statistical measures of central tendency wrongly, indeed opposite to the appropriate interpretation in our actual world of variation, shadings, and continua. In short, we view means and medians as the hard “realities,” and the variation that permits their calculation as a set of transient and imperfect measurements of this hidden essence. If the median is the reality and variation around the median just a device for its calculation, the “I will probably be dead in eight months” may pass as a reasonable interpretation.

But all evolutionary biologists know that variation itself is nature’s only irreducible essence. Variation is the hard reality, not a set of imperfect measures for a central tendency. Means and medians are the abstractions.

Notice how Mr. Gould is talking about kinds of things as being separate from variation, shadings, and continua. I don’t know if he’d say everything was like that, even individuals, but if so, I’d have to disagree: individuals are distinct and separate; this is given clearly (by real, immutable cause-effect relationships) in perception. Kinds of things, conceptual categories, come about only by recognizing things in their reality- and perceptually-given background of variation: tables grasped as related to but contrasted with furniture and other items in a house; trees grasped as related to but contrasted with grass and bushes; people grasped as related to but contrasted with other animals; engineers grasped as related to but contrasted with other human professions.

Concepts are only ways of categorizing individuals based on cause-effect and explanatory relationships. Individuals are most real; types or kinds are real, but have a “secondary, dependent existence” to individuals.

July 29, 2009

Thermogenesis and Weight Loss

Filed under: Exercise, Health & Nutrition,Science,Statistics — Administrator @ 6:34 am

In the introduction to “Postprandial Thermogenesis Is Increased 100% on a High-Protein, Low-Fat Diet versus a High-Carbohydrate, Low-Fat Diet in Healthy, Young Women” (Journal of the American College of Nutrition, Vol. 21, No. 1, 55-61 (2002)), Carol S. Johnston, PhD, FACN, Carol S. Day, MS and Pamela D. Swan, PhD write:

Counter to the current U.S. Dietary Guidelines which promote diets high in complex carbohydrates (58% of total daily energy) [1], recent clinical investigations support the efficacy of high-protein, reduced fat diets for weight loss, as well as for improved insulin sensitivity and blood lipid profiles.

They should not be scared of fat!! It is grains and sugars that make us fat and unhealthy, not the fats we eat! They just cannot get over that prejudice.

The abstract to their research says (the statistics here are beautiful…):

(more…)

March 2, 2009

Evaluating Studies

Filed under: Biology,Exercise, Health & Nutrition,Logic,Science,Statistics — Administrator @ 1:44 pm

Dr. Michael Eades has a post entitled “Baboon Business” that shows how to dissect a scientific study. Dr. Eades says:

I’ve read the paper that is the topic of today’s post from beginning to end five times. Not because it is a brilliant, enlightening paper, but because I found it so worthless I kept thinking there was something I was missing. If this paper had been published in the Journal of the American Dietetic Association or some other third tier journal I wouldn’t have thought so much about it. Were it published in a second tier journal such as Metabolism, I would have wondered a little more. But it was published in the October issue of the venerable American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, a first tier journal for sure, and, arguably, the most prestigious nutritional journal in the world.

I’ve decided to use this paper entitled “Arterial endothelial dysfunction in baboons fed a high-cholesterol, high-fat diet” to demonstrate how totally meaningless research can find its way to the best of journals thanks to a built-in bias among the “peers” who are reviewing such research and to show how to interpret a scientific/medical article.

Critically reading a scientific paper is a piece of detective work. One has to discover motives, obfuscations, biases, and sloppy work and put it all together to get the real picture, not just the picture the author of the paper wants to be seen. Just like a good detective who assumes everyone is lying until stories are corroborated, so it is with the scientific literature. One must always corroborate, probe, compare and dig deeply because almost nothing is as it appears on the surface. As Sherlock Holmes says, “These are very deep waters.” In the case of the study we will in due course explore, the waters are very deep indeed.

This all applies to the recent NIH study.

January 5, 2009

Statistics Resource: Online Data Analysis

Filed under: Statistics,Technology — Administrator @ 3:48 pm

UCLA has a resource on the Internet, the Statistical Online Computational Resource (SOCR), which allows you to do statistical analyses: one-sample t tests, simple linear regression, multiple regression, survival analysis, two-sample t tests, sign tests, rank sum tests, Wilcoxon tests, ANOVA, chi-square tests, Fisher’s exact test, Kolmogorov Smirnoff, run numerical “experiments,” look at and alter probability distributions, make charts and graphs of all sorts.

Beautiful…

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